There’s still a maximum of 357 points available to any single driver in the 2025 season, but the moment Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes speared into the right rear corner of Max Verstappen’s Red Bull at Turn 3, the defending champion’s chances of winning a fifth straight world championship went from rank outsider to almost too slim to see.
For much of the first half of this season, Verstappen was keeping himself in range of the two McLaren drivers, with his win in Imola a clear sign that, on the right tracks, he was capable of taking maximum points, but on the wrong one he was still picking up solid points.
Monaco was particularly tough, and Verstappen followed that up with his inexplicable Spanish Grand Prix collision with George Russell, and the points gap grew quickly. There was a slight closing of it in Canada, but elimination on the opening lap in Austria left him 61 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri.
Not only that, but new parts brought by Red Bull didn’t appear to put the car in a stronger window, and instead of the early part of the year keeping him in touch with the top two before gains closed the performance gap, the deficit appeared larger, if anything.
Even team principal Christian Horner had to acknowledge that, at a time when he would usually be looking to put a positive spin on the situation. He told me on SiriusXM that, had Verstappen not been taken out, “We wouldn’t have raced the McLarens – [they] were in a different stratosphere,” which suggests a difference in the pace of the cars has not been closed.
The two McLaren drivers can sit at home if they wish for the next two rounds and Piastri would still show up for the final race before the summer break with an 11-point advantage over Verstappen if the Dutchman won both. Instead, what we’re likely to see is an increasingly exciting and tense fight between Piastri and Lando Norris.
“McLaren, you can see how they are racing each other – they’ve got a cushion to the rest of the field,” Horner said. “For us, we just focus one race at a time, so we don’t even think about championships.
“I think this season, the buffer that they [McLaren] have is significant. It looks very much like a two horse race. For us, we just focus on every single Grand Prix and you try and grab every opportunity, like we did in Imola. Montreal a couple of weeks ago, we were second, ahead of the McLarens…
“What’s truly impressive – and for me, I can’t see any other team being able to do it – is when you look at how close Oscar is able to run behind Lando with a car fat on fuel at the beginning of the race, and he’s basically making love to his exhaust pipe for lap after lap after lap, the tires are not dying.”
Nose to tail, not losing any time, lap after lap. In modern Formula 1, it’s stunning. Guenther Iby/Getty Images
Barring a remarkable breakthrough with the car, it certainly seems likely to be the end of Verstappen’s run of titles, but the remainder of the year is set very differently to his last three championships.
Red Bull struggled to provide two competitive cars for much of this era, and Verstappen has been so good he has never been under any real form of pressure from a teammate for a title. But at McLaren, Norris’ win has quickly turned around the outlook surrounding the two drivers.
Piastri’s run of three straight wins prior to the start of the European season appeared ominous, with Norris regularly making mistakes in qualifying, or lacking the clinical edge that both Piastri and Verstappen largely showed. His win in Monaco was a strong weekend, but Piastri had the better of him in Spain before the costly Canada error saw Norris retire and fall nearly a race win adrift.
Not only was the timing of his win in Austria important, it felt like it could have been a defining afternoon. Had Piastri found a way past and won on a track where Norris was dominant in qualifying and has traditionally been so good, the 29-point deficit would have been secondary to the psychological impact. Instead, Norris closed the gap, and showed he could handle the pressure.
I must admit I was surprised about Norris’ hopes when analyzing the trend over the past five races. A costly DNF and Piastri’s win in Spain suggested the Briton would have been losing ground, but in fact he has outscored his teammate by a point since the start of the European season, with two wins and two second places aside from his Montreal retirement.
Piastri, on the other hand, has one win and one second place, finishing third in Imola and Monaco, and fourth in Canada. The consistency was greater, but the points return wasn’t. That’s what makes this battle so exciting. Norris is still able to accumulate strong points throughout his highs and lows, because of the points delta for the bigger results, and it creates weekends such as this one in Austria, where the pair are going wheel-to-wheel with victory at stake.
“With Lando himself, the conversations were all about the fact that the speed is there,” team principal Andrea Stella said on Sunday night. “Pole position and victory in Monaco. When he touched the wall in qualifying in Canada, he was in line for pole position. He was the fastest car in Canada in the race. Pole position in Austria…
“The speed is there. We just have to polish a few things in execution and results will come, which is what Lando has demonstrated here in Austria. Very proud of Lando; very proud of how everyone handled the situation in Canada and the fact that we ended up more united and stronger.
“It’s a long way to go [in the championship]. I think with both drivers, we need to look one race at a time. In the one race at a time, we need to make sure that we maximize the potential. We stay in the race and we race each other according to our approach and principles, then we will see in Abu Dhabi what the outcome is.”
Piastri’s demeanor likely dictates he’s not overly flustered by Norris’ win, but he will know his teammate hasn’t performed at his best this season and yet is still just 15 points adrift. That adds importance to their on-track battles, and McLaren shows its going to continue to let them decide matters between themselves.
It might have just become more of a two-horse race, but it’s a good one.
